What's with the fifteen minutes?

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Swinglowandslow

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Where has the fifteen minutes come from.
As I understand this contact tracing initiative, the NHS will only set out to trace people who have been in contact with someone who has tested positive, IF they have been
1. Within 2 meters of each other
2. For a period of fifteen minutes

Fifteen minutes? Look at your watch and time fifteen minutes. It's a long time to be with someone , that closely.
The only person I can say that about since the lock down started is - my wife.

The contact tracers are going to have an relatively easy job, looking for "fifteen minuters "
Is that why we have fifteen minutes?
I have always questioned the practicality of contact tracing because for example, if I went into Tescos , how many unknown people do I get within 2 meters of, ?
Don't have to be there very long, within 2 metres, before it is long enough to breath their breath.
Which is what this is about. Which is why there are lines, and circles painted everywhere to keep us 2 metres apart.
So , during the course of a week say, how many people are you in a relaxed lockdown, within two metres of,

And then , - you test positive.
So, asks the NHS , who have you been within two metres of , in the last week?
True answer, "God knows"
Now chuck in the fifteen minutes requirement.
True answer, 1 maybe up to five..

We have been dodging each other these past few weeks quite rightly, IMO,
because breathing each other's breath ,for only a little while ,is likely to infect .
That is what we have been led to believe , is it not?

Now, is the Isle of Wight initiative going ahead? This had a better chance of doing it properly (medically speaking), I.e. recording who you came within 2 metres of,
but had the difficulty of how many would use the App?
Even so, there would have been a lot more contacts to trace if done that way.

I haven't seen all the detailed comments about this new system, and it may well have been introduced acknowledging that some limiting factors need to be included to make it practical. I.e. Aimed at Businesses or work environments etc, but if so, I hope that they would emphasise that. Otherwise, a lot of people may construe that unless fifteen minutes is part of the contact, then social distancing as we have so far done it , is not any longer necessary.?

Comments?
 

AmandaJR

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I wondered that but assume it's to cope with people who say you may pass in the supermarket and queue closer than 2m from. If there is anyone who you've been within two metres of for longer then they're clearly at risk. It's about containment and managing the risk.
 

Doon frae Troon

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From what my Boris/Brexit/Tory supporting IOW relatives tell me the IOW trial has been a disaster.
App not working as it should be.
I think Hancock had his fingures crossed behind his back when he said how successful it had been.
Remember this government has a loooooooooong history of lying to it's citizens.:(
 

Rlburnside

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Yes 15 min. seems a strange one, all this time in lockdown I’ve never been that close to anyone for that amount of time , except the misses of course.

One thing that I wondered what if a nhs worker was tested positive and they had to trace people, could be 10/20 other colleagues that had to self isolate, how does that work?
 

Rlburnside

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From what my Boris/Brexit/Tory supporting IOW relatives tell me the IOW trial has been a disaster.
App not working as it should be.
I think Hancock had his fingures crossed behind his back when he said how successful it had been.
Remember this government has a loooooooooong history of lying to it's citizens.:(
Triple whammy I feel sorry for you 😂
 

Slab

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And then , - you test positive.
So, asks the NHS , who have you been within two metres of , in the last week?
True answer, "God knows"
This should not be a 'god knows' answer should it. Have any of the UK countries dropped the social distancing requirement, are any planning to drop the 2m requirement?
Maybe I'm wrong but I thought this is still in place so you shouldn't be inside 2m to god knows how many people and if you do happen to break the bubble it should be momentary or very short term such that its a minimal chance for you to breath in droplets from them

because breathing each other's breath ,for only a little while ,is likely to infect .
So it's pretty hard to breathe someone else's breath from outside 2m, meaning it's be not very likely to infect?
 

pendodave

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Most obvious scenario is on public transport (in London at least).
Many people are probably working at quite close quarters as well.
As for the 15 mins, maybe it's not quite the monster that the whipped up frenzy has created...
 

IanM

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Never has virology been so impacted by your view on Federalism 🤣🤣 Brexit is completely to blame for (insert issue here)

I think the 15 min in the latest in a line of theories/developing understanding. Heck it's a virus...you can transfer it by coughing and sneezing, on surfaces and goodness knows what.

I'm sure if it was only 15 mins transfer levels wouldn't be so high... but who knows
 

GB72

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Yes 15 min. seems a strange one, all this time in lockdown I’ve never been that close to anyone for that amount of time , except the misses of course.

One thing that I wondered what if a nhs worker was tested positive and they had to trace people, could be 10/20 other colleagues that had to self isolate, how does that work?
I think that there was a caveat that it had to be 15 minutes in proximity to someone who tests positive and neither person is wearing PPE. Current social distancing regulations apply and so that person should not be meeting with many people outside of work
 

larmen

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Yes 15 min. seems a strange one, all this time in lockdown I’ve never been that close to anyone for that amount of time , except the misses of course.

One thing that I wondered what if a nhs worker was tested positive and they had to trace people, could be 10/20 other colleagues that had to self isolate, how does that work?
Priority testing. If nurse A gets tested positive then B, C, D, ... get tested immediately.
That would be my theory.
 

IanM

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From what my Boris/Brexit/Tory supporting IOW relatives tell me the IOW trial has been a disaster.
App not working as it should be.
I think Hancock had his fingures crossed behind his back when he said how successful it had been.
Remember this government has a loooooooooong history of lying to it's citizens.:(
...gosh, I hope the new Mods insist on an improved level of trolling! :)
 

drdel

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15 minutes exposure is the time Prof Chris Whitty qouted as giving a potentially a high virus load. 10 minutes and under the risk is lower unless you have direct contact with the carrier or are engulfed by a sneeze or cough. Clearly touching your face etc with a contaminated hand etc raises the transmission likelihood.
 
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Most obvious scenario is on public transport (in London at least).
Many people are probably working at quite close quarters as well.
As for the 15 mins, maybe it's not quite the monster that the whipped up frenzy has created...
So I have to get the name and phone number of the bloke whose armpit I've been pressed into all the way from Epping?
 

drdel

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From what my Boris/Brexit/Tory supporting IOW relatives tell me the IOW trial has been a disaster.
App not working as it should be.
I think Hancock had his fingures crossed behind his back when he said how successful it had been.
Remember this government has a loooooooooong history of lying to it's citizens.:(
'lying'' or just spin or just as Blackford's travelling up to Skye...selective truth.
 
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The '15min within 2m' has been part of the guidelines for quite some time - if not from the very start. I 'think' it is something to do with the statistics around the period of time that droplets from a cough hang in the air.
 

Billysboots

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As others have said, the “15 minutes” timeframe has been circulating for some time.

It seems to be accepted now that you’re very, very unlikely to catch this walking by someone in the street, even within two metres, unless they cough or sneeze in your face. It’s also equally unlikely that you will become infected during a two minute conversation with someone.

Those odds are said to dramatically increase if you are in close proximity to someone for an extended period hence, as I understand it, the 15 minute guidance.

Contact tracing has to have a defined starting point. Of course nobody expects you to know who you stood next to on the tube, or walked by in the supermarket, and even less be able to provide their contact details. But wider contact tracing through known individuals is doable - it’s recognised to be an essential minimum criteria to safely easing lockdown, and is regarded as one of the primary reasons that the easing of restrictions elsewhere has been reasonably successful.
 
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Swinglowandslow

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As others have said, the “15 minutes” timeframe has been circulating for some time.

It seems to be accepted now that you’re very, very unlikely to catch this walking by someone in the street, even within two metres, unless they cough or sneeze in your face. It’s also equally unlikely that you will become infected during a two minute conversation with someone.


Those odds are said to dramatically increase if you are in close proximity to someone for an extended period hence, as I understand it, the 15 minute guidance.

Contact tracing has to have a defined starting point. Of course nobody expects you to know who you stood next to on the tube, or walked by in the supermarket, and even less be able to provide their contact details. But wider contact tracing through known individuals is doable - it’s recognised to be an essential minimum criteria to safely easing lockdown, and is regarded as one of the primary reasons that the easing of restrictions elsewhere has been reasonably success

Nothing you have said do I disagree with, however, the bit in bold does suggest that the shopping SD requirements could have been different, and less onerous.
Shirley😀, if the shopping advice had been, go in and shop expeditiously, don't hang about chatting but get what you want and leave, then all this two or three at a time in the shop, etc is a bit OTT..?
Who stays near someone in a shop for even a few minutes?

As for the Australian and Isle of Wight app, they were based on being within 2 metres( or thereabouts) of someone unknown to you . The App would identify them to the authorities if you reported yourself positive to the authorities.

I wasn't aware the IoW trial had not worked; is that in terms of the App not functioning properly, or not enough taking part?
Anyone know why?
 

Old Skier

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From what my Boris/Brexit/Tory supporting IOW relatives tell me the IOW trial has been a disaster.
App not working as it should be.
I think Hancock had his fingures crossed behind his back when he said how successful it had been.
Remember this government has a loooooooooong history of lying to it's citizens.:(
Do you know anyone who lives in Scotland
 
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