As your point on HK, yes I can imagine these people aren't going to go easily into a dystopian, totalitarian state. Yes they have SARS experience, 97% wear masks all year round and they have the added mentality of trying to beat the Chinese where this came from. However HK's population is so dense, who controls the death numbers released. The CCP, and they haven't exactly been good at that have they? Unless you really believe 5x as many people have died in the Isle of man compared to HK.
It's academics produced early papers casting doubt on China's numbers.
I would be very surprised if it's figures were not accurate.