The Virus anybody else done the maths

Hobbit

Ryder Cup Winner
Joined
Sep 11, 2011
Messages
15,100
Location
Espana
Know I wrote wait a week but;

Italy 12 March 1015
UK 28 March 1019

🙁
Seeing where Italy & Spain are currently is not good for them or encouraging for the UK

Bearing in mind we're now on day 13 of the full lockdown, and many businesses shut 15 days ago it was very worrying to see that Almeria region has had a big surge in the last 24 hours. 13 days into lockdown I thought the surge would have been at least 3 days ago. It makes frightening reading - we're one of the least populated regions.

The announcement from President Sanchez at 8pm tonight was full on, all singing all dancing lockdown. All businesses that have argued for exemption, e.g. construction, have been told to close with effect from midnight tomorrow night.

I feel that Spain have been far harsher then the UK, e.g. €600 fines minimum, and imposed exceptionally strictly. We saw one of our neighbours fined a couple of days ago because they both took rubbish bags down to the bins - one person only. We know the policeman, he's a lovely guy but no messing over here.

There was an 11 hour debate on Wednesday, into the early hours of Thursday re the extension to the lockdown. Sanchez got eaten alive over the slow response. Honestly, I think the UK govt have been exceptionally slow by comparison. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but I think you're heading into a gritstorm.
 

Lord Tyrion

Money List Winner
Joined
Sep 9, 2014
Messages
15,054
Location
Northumberland
Walked our dog tonight and saw a bloke I chat to who has two greyhounds. We stopped at an appropriate distance and talked away. I've discovered he works for the NHS and so was asking him how it was. Eerily quiet was his response, like a tsunami when all the birds shut up. They are primed and ready but have very few cases right now. We are not seeing a spread up here, those who have it do not seem to have passed it on to any degree. There are none at this moment in my town, none at all.

He was not complacent but with all the fear right now it was good to hear a positive angle.

I should add, the lockdown advice is being well respected here. I'm sure some are not but on the whole it is being followed.
 

Blue in Munich

Money List Winner
Joined
Jan 12, 2013
Messages
9,011
Location
Worcester Park
A alternative view on the maths from the Peter Hitchens column;

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.
It is sad that far too little of this is being reported as prominently as it should be by our supposedly diverse and free media, especially the BBC, which has largely closed its mind and its airwaves to dissent. It is quite funny that a statue of George Orwell stands by the entrance to the BBC, bearing the inscription: ‘If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’
Obviously, they should take it down, as nobody inside the building appears to believe that.
Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.
He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.
He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.
The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it. This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.
Now, if you want a scientist who does not support Government policy, the most impressive of these is Prof Sucharit Bhakdi. If you desire experts, he is one.
He is an infectious medicine specialist, one of the most highly cited medical research scientists in Germany. He was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, one of Germany’s most distinguished seats of learning.
In a recent interview he had many uncomplimentary things to say about the shutdown policy being pursued by so many countries (there is a link on my blog to the interview, and a transcription).
But perhaps the most powerful was his reply to the suggestion that the closedown of society would save lives. He argued the contrary, saying this policy was ‘grotesque, absurd and very dangerous’.
He warned: ‘Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 [in Germany] who daily embark on their last journey. Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies all help to prolong their stay on Earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.’
He also gave this warning: ‘The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.
‘The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.
‘All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
‘I can only say that all these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.’

This is plainly true. Old people who are still healthy, thanks to regular exercise and busy social lives, will suffer hugely from being trapped in their homes.
But there is another major problem with the Government case. Do the figures show what they claim to show?
Many people will die with coronavirus. But this does not mean that they died of it.
This is already a major problem in judging death totals from such countries as Italy. Yet new rules in the UK mean deaths which may well be mainly from other causes are recorded as corona deaths.
John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist, writes in The Spectator this weekend that by making Covid-19 a notifiable disease, the authorities may have distorted the figures.
‘In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate – contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind.
‘There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes.
Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.’
This, of course, explains why such an overwhelming number of Covid deaths, here and abroad, involve so-called ‘underlying conditions’, in fact serious, often fatal, diseases.

Take this into account whenever you hear official figures of coronavirus deaths.
Dr Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’
That is the heart of it. It was never going to be as bad as the panic-mongers said.
The hysterical measures taken may well not have done any good. Yet our freedom is still bruised and broken, and our economy limping and deeply damaged.
If we do not learn the right lessons from this grim episode, then we will, for certain, have to go through it all again.

I have no idea if it is right or wrong, but it certainly makes for interesting reading.
 

harpo_72

Journeyman Pro
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Messages
3,494
A alternative view on the maths from the Peter Hitchens column;

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.
It is sad that far too little of this is being reported as prominently as it should be by our supposedly diverse and free media, especially the BBC, which has largely closed its mind and its airwaves to dissent. It is quite funny that a statue of George Orwell stands by the entrance to the BBC, bearing the inscription: ‘If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’
Obviously, they should take it down, as nobody inside the building appears to believe that.
Crucially, those who began by claiming that we faced half a million deaths from the coronavirus in this country have now greatly lowered their estimate. Professor Neil Ferguson was one of those largely responsible for the original panic. He or others from Imperial college have twice revised his terrifying prophecy, first to fewer than 20,000 and then on Friday to 5,700.
He says intensive care units will probably cope. And he conceded a point made by critics of the panic policy – that two-thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months would most likely have died this year from other causes.
He tried to claim that the shutdown of the country had led to this violent backtrack, claiming that it was ‘social distancing strategies’ which had brought about his amazing climbdown. How could he possibly know either that this had happened, or that it would happen, or that there was any connection between the two?

It is very hard to see by what means he could know any of these things. Could he have softened his stance because of the publication early last week of a rival view, from distinguished scientists at Oxford University, led by Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical epidemiology? It suggests that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment.
The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. Millions may already have had it. This report is being unfairly sneered at by Government toadies, but we shall see. It seems unlikely that Oxford University would have bungled their work.

And it is obvious that a few days of raggedly enforced house arrest could not have made so much real difference. Even those who believe in these shutdowns think they take two weeks to have any effect.
Now, if you want a scientist who does not support Government policy, the most impressive of these is Prof Sucharit Bhakdi. If you desire experts, he is one.
He is an infectious medicine specialist, one of the most highly cited medical research scientists in Germany. He was head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, one of Germany’s most distinguished seats of learning.
In a recent interview he had many uncomplimentary things to say about the shutdown policy being pursued by so many countries (there is a link on my blog to the interview, and a transcription).
But perhaps the most powerful was his reply to the suggestion that the closedown of society would save lives. He argued the contrary, saying this policy was ‘grotesque, absurd and very dangerous’.
He warned: ‘Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 [in Germany] who daily embark on their last journey. Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies all help to prolong their stay on Earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.’
He also gave this warning: ‘The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.
‘The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.
‘All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
‘I can only say that all these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.’

This is plainly true. Old people who are still healthy, thanks to regular exercise and busy social lives, will suffer hugely from being trapped in their homes.
But there is another major problem with the Government case. Do the figures show what they claim to show?
Many people will die with coronavirus. But this does not mean that they died of it.
This is already a major problem in judging death totals from such countries as Italy. Yet new rules in the UK mean deaths which may well be mainly from other causes are recorded as corona deaths.
John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist, writes in The Spectator this weekend that by making Covid-19 a notifiable disease, the authorities may have distorted the figures.
‘In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate – contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind.
‘There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes.
Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.’
This, of course, explains why such an overwhelming number of Covid deaths, here and abroad, involve so-called ‘underlying conditions’, in fact serious, often fatal, diseases.

Take this into account whenever you hear official figures of coronavirus deaths.
Dr Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’
That is the heart of it. It was never going to be as bad as the panic-mongers said.
The hysterical measures taken may well not have done any good. Yet our freedom is still bruised and broken, and our economy limping and deeply damaged.
If we do not learn the right lessons from this grim episode, then we will, for certain, have to go through it all again.

I have no idea if it is right or wrong, but it certainly makes for interesting reading.
Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group.
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.
 
Joined
Jun 20, 2018
Messages
2,698
Location
Moonpig
Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group.
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.
Same panic buying every where. Spoke to my mate in Singapore and it was the same stuff getting bought.
 

Hobbit

Ryder Cup Winner
Joined
Sep 11, 2011
Messages
15,100
Location
Espana
Yup, and it will gain credibility with better testing and results to back up the analysis and confirm the speculation.
This is the issue, you get a few deaths, that gives you a number, but that number needs to be dissected into healthy, and under lying health problems.. then you identify the risk levels and those that are part of that group.
But even if you did, would the English listen .. I mean this is a population that panic bought toilet rolls, how embarrassing is that.
The bit I struggle with in Hitchin's piece is when he says if someone has an underlying condition that C19 tips them over the edge it should be the underlying condition, e.g. heart attack, that is the reason for death. I can sort of see where he's coming from but the reality is they wouldn't have had the heart attack if C19 hadn't triggered it.

For me, its still C19 is the reason for death.
 

Ye Olde Boomer

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Messages
1,076
Location
An hour northwest of Boston
There was an armed robbery in Hong Kong for toilet paper. Knives, not guns, but still shows a real determination for toilet paper.
How barbaric!
Not many things to brag about in America right now, I admit, but at least we have enough guns for everybody who needs them!

Crime was briefly down during the pandemic, but now kids home from school are taking up the slack. Not smart, considering the sketchy health conditions in our juvenile prisons.
 

Swinglowandslow

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 19, 2018
Messages
1,007
This is clearly a virus that kills a lot easier than flu. Not only of vulnerable people, but too many healthy young persons.
As I write the death is announced of a ENT consultant. It's odds on that he was healthy. In itself it doesn't prove one way or another, but Hitchens makes and repeats some extraordinary claims. I suspect support for him comes from a frustration, a wishful thinking, about the awful restrictions upon us now and for a while to come. But if his experts were right, we would not have NHS staff telling us of the unprecedented conditions they face- hospitals close to collapse, pleading from a Doctors etc. Those are the realities.
How does this stand up against that
""Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’ "

Never going to be. ? Where's he been?
They wouldn't be realities if Oxford was right. They would be merely blips, wouldn't they?
 

IainP

Tour Rookie
Joined
Oct 26, 2011
Messages
2,436
Location
Oxfordshire
# The following is just ramblings of someone who doesn't know much and should be treated as such #
I think some months down the line history will look back on actions in China, South Korea, parts of the USA, and across Europe and try to make sense of it all.

Early on in the main thread I was searching for stats, and came up with on average something like 1500 deaths in the UK a day. I would have like to have seen what that has been like recently. However, I might assume that these 1500 were spread about across a number of areas whereas the challenge the world is facing now, is growing numbers of similar specific symptoms with specific ways to treat.
We certainly should not lose sight of the counting, if it is "someone had Covid-19" rather than "someone died from Covid-19". But, I'd like to think the former is a Yes/No reliable test, and the latter may well be open to subjectivity - with the number in play we don't want medical staff having a debate about this, there isn't the time.

From what I followed from Italy, because so many were presenting with the symptoms, and the capacity just wasn't there, those on the front line were being forced to make those horrible decisions. You can have treatment and in all possibility will recover, you can't and in all possibility won't. I'd say it is this, in what we consider a civilised society, that has stopped society just carrying as normal and letting this spread unabated.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...r-to-younger-patient-he-did-not-know-11962806
 

murphthemog

Grand Slam Winner
Joined
Mar 9, 2007
Messages
23,829
Survival rates of people on ventillators still seems to be only around 50% though, so hardly in all possibility.
 

Blue in Munich

Money List Winner
Joined
Jan 12, 2013
Messages
9,011
Location
Worcester Park
This is clearly a virus that kills a lot easier than flu. Not only of vulnerable people, but too many healthy young persons.
As I write the death is announced of a ENT consultant. It's odds on that he was healthy. In itself it doesn't prove one way or another, but Hitchens makes and repeats some extraordinary claims. I suspect support for him comes from a frustration, a wishful thinking, about the awful restrictions upon us now and for a while to come. But if his experts were right, we would not have NHS staff telling us of the unprecedented conditions they face- hospitals close to collapse, pleading from a Doctors etc. Those are the realities.
How does this stand up against that
""Lee adds, equally crucially: ‘We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared.’ "

Never going to be. ? Where's he been?
They wouldn't be realities if Oxford was right. They would be merely blips, wouldn't they?
Yet apparently the statistics projected by Imperial College London have been revised down from 500,000 deaths to 5,700. That strikes me as something that was never really going to be going to be as severe we feared, because with all due respect the the Government & the NHS I don't see their actions cutting down the estimates that much. Interestingly one of the comments on the original FT article pointed out that ICL's modelling had previously got a couple of the other infectious outbreaks estimates wildly wrong.

I don't know any more than anyone else, and this is not intended as criticism of the action being taken by the Government, merely as a discussion point.
 

pendodave

Tour Rookie
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
2,212
Modelling is such an inexact science with such limited data. Look at us, Sweden, Germany and France. All developed,civilised countries with respected academics. But 4 completely different (but justifiable) approaches.
 

Hobbit

Ryder Cup Winner
Joined
Sep 11, 2011
Messages
15,100
Location
Espana
And that is definitely the most stupid thing ever said on this forum. It also makes me think you must be a troll!

Says the guy who right out of the blue accused someone of being a Tommy Robinson supporter.... Is there anyone else on your hit list today? Jeez Mark, do you have to go nuclear?

What was it you said about considering other views?
 

drdel

Tour Rookie
Joined
Aug 28, 2013
Messages
3,608
How about a question/dilemma/fake news?

Germany policy is looking to test Germans widely for antibodies and issue certificates to those who are now immune and release them to work - it obviously raises the question - what about those who have not been infected but are still vulnerable?

UK Government strategy is also to crank up antibody testing and social distancing to flatten the curve of infections so the NHS can cope.
Within a window of about 12 months there is no cure or vaccine.
About 20% of UK are aged 65+ so in the more vulnerable group there's about 12mill people.
If 'flattening' the curve just delays the period before everyone has been infected and developed antibodies then these 12m will eventually catch the virus.

Now for the unanswered question: if the death rate among those infected is currently running around 5% ish; (600,000 people - about the same as the annual UK deaths).
What are your plans? - sleep well !!!

(clearly in the 600K there will be many who would have died of normal/natural causes so the total would not be 1.2m - and I may have twisted the numerical logic a bit - phew)
 

Kellfire

Tour Winner
Joined
Jul 11, 2009
Messages
6,294
Location
Leeds
I think that Mr boomer may be having a gentle poke at American values.
His grasp of irony makes me think that his most troll-y activity is that he's not actually American at all...
He’s not. He’s said it before than guns are more civilised than knives.
 

Kellfire

Tour Winner
Joined
Jul 11, 2009
Messages
6,294
Location
Leeds
Says the guy who right out of the blue accused someone of being a Tommy Robinson supporter.... Is there anyone else on your hit list today? Jeez Mark, do you have to go nuclear?

What was it you said about considering other views?
You know his view on this one is completely crazy.
 
Top