The Virus anybody else done the maths

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jim8flog

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I heard a university egghead on the radio saying that according to their modeling that by locking down and creating a 15% fall in GDP we will kill more people through poverty reducing life expectancy than would die by the virus.
I often get posts on my facebook from a fairly activist political person - one of the ones from a couple of weeks ago said "the Tories are more dangerous to our health than the virus".
 

JustOne

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I find it odd that the number 'pumpers' at the media seem so quick to jump on bad stats as if they are good stats, example....

Country has 100 cases and it jumps to 150 (increase of 50%) Boooooo!!
Country has 50,000 cases and it jumps to 60,000 (increase of 20%) time to celebrate as the % goes down!! :censored::censored::censored:

I mean lets not look at the difference between 50 people getting infected and 10,000,... its all crazy.
Daily Mail, headline reads...

Is it working? UK records 43 coronavirus deaths in past 24 hours compared to 87 yesterday and new infections level out

Then two lines below...

The UK has recorded 43 coronavirus deaths in the past 24 hours compared to 87 yesterday, but new infections have sky-rocketed by a record 1,452

sky-rocketing, levelling out, my thesaurus must be outta date :(
 

williamalex1

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I have done the maths but (obviously) hope that I'm wrong and they find a cure, a prevention or at least something that is going to help people survive this BEFORE the maths comes true.
Welcome back to the fold JustOne , James if I remember correctly, you've been sadly missed (y)
 
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The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
Speaking to some German colleagues today, the understanding is that most cases originally came from young families that had been skiing in Italy and the mortality rate for younger people is lower. They are hoping that their lockdown stops it spreading to the more elderly.
 

pendodave

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The maths that concern me, Germany more than 3 times the case we have with less than half the mortality rate we have.
I think German counting is a little different. I read that it has to be collated at a federal level and then forwarded to the national organisations. It takes a while and not every state counts deaths quite the same.
I think at this early stage, and with such huge differences in testing regimes, data collection is as likely to be a cause as any clinical differences.
 

IainP

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One week ago the UK seemed to be tracking pretty much spot on 14 days behind Italy.
If I read it right, it looks to have moved a little to 16 days behind.
Obviously don't want to read to much into it, and see how things look in another week. Tough times ahead no doubt.
 
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What would the figures be if China had not ordered doctors not to go public, stopped testing and destroyed samples.
When the virus was rampant in Wuhan allowed a festival with tens of thousands taking part, then allowed 5 million to leave the city while on lockdown.
 

Ye Olde Boomer

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The pandemic, as it wreaks havoc on our population, still manages to be a subject of political contention as well in the US.

Prominent Republican spokespeople have come right out and send that saving lives is not worth shutting down the economy.
Apparently, we're destroying the American way of life for the ones who do survive!

This drivel, my friends, is that with which we must put up over here when there are life and death issues to address.

I wasn't born during the Great Depression and just missed WWII as well. This crisis, then, is the most severe that I've ever witnessed.
What I can see already is that among those of us who survive it, quite a few of us won't have learned a goddamned thing.
 

JustOne

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I wasn't born during the Great Depression and just missed WWII as well. This crisis, then, is the most severe that I've ever witnessed.
What I can see already is that among those of us who survive it, quite a few of us won't have learned a goddamned thing.
You are right, you probably STILL won't be able to play thru when play is slow :love:
 

IainP

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One week ago the UK seemed to be tracking pretty much spot on 14 days behind Italy.
If I read it right, it looks to have moved a little to 16 days behind.
Obviously don't want to read to much into it, and see how things look in another week. Tough times ahead no doubt.
Know I wrote wait a week but;

Italy 12 March 1015
UK 28 March 1019

🙁
Seeing where Italy & Spain are currently is not good for them or encouraging for the UK
 
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