The Virus anybody else done the maths

IainP

Tour Rookie
Joined
Oct 26, 2011
Messages
2,544
Location
Oxfordshire
A smidge over a thousand new cases today, be good to see that drop into 3 figures.

Most have probably seen this - some attempted analysis of how covid came into the UK.

I think a few of us did think at the time with being an island the borders could have been closed sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734
 
Last edited:

Paperboy

Tour Rookie
Joined
Feb 10, 2012
Messages
1,573
Location
Southampton, Hampshire
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

almost 70% of under 60s, develop no symptoms :eek: not peered reviewed etc.

Going to be an interesting read later, cant quite believe it
My Cousin a frontline nurse (late 30's) had it and no symptoms what so ever. Couldn't wait to get back to C19 ward.
An acquittances wife also a front line nurse contracted it (Mid to late 40's) got knocked for 6, 2 weeks in bed. Third week moving around the house.

I still think the actual cases not confirmed would equal the cases confirmed, only my opinion though.
 

Billysboots

Challenge Tour Pro
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
832
I still think the actual cases not confirmed would equal the cases confirmed, only my opinion though.
Really? I very much think the unconfirmed cases will outnumber the confirmed ones several times over.

I’ve had it (confirmed via an antibody test), and my symptoms were mild bordering on non-existent, despite me being over 50 and vulnerable owing to a mild underlying condition. An immediate work colleague has also had it, and had no symptoms.

The medics administering my test suggested up to 20% tested were positive for antibodies, the majority with mild or no symptoms. Transfer that percentage into the general population and you’re looking at the region of 12m cases. At the last count the UK had just shy of 300k confirmed cases.
 
Last edited:

GB72

Money List Winner
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
10,456
Location
Rutland
it looks like Italy, as well as France, have found evidence that Covid 19 was around in December. I wonder how this impacts the figures in that it looks plausible that the virus was running free around Europe of a couple of months at least before it was picked up as a threat. Could the spike in infection rates that occurred in March actually have been a gradual build up over several months. Probably a ridiculous suggestion and no action was taken that would have ended the first one but is there any argument that what we are experiencing is, in fact, the second wave, the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.
 

larmen

Head Pro
Joined
Nov 2, 2015
Messages
1,261
the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.
I am not surprised we had some cases in Europe earlier, think about all the work travel going on to China. But the lower death rates back then doesn’t really show a wave, in my opinion. We only really heard about it impacting once people came back from skiing in the alps.
it is probably impossible to find out when and how it really started.
maybe they should roll out antibody testing across the country.
 

ColchesterFC

Journeyman Pro
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Messages
4,227
it looks like Italy, as well as France, have found evidence that Covid 19 was around in December. I wonder how this impacts the figures in that it looks plausible that the virus was running free around Europe of a couple of months at least before it was picked up as a threat. Could the spike in infection rates that occurred in March actually have been a gradual build up over several months. Probably a ridiculous suggestion and no action was taken that would have ended the first one but is there any argument that what we are experiencing is, in fact, the second wave, the first wave having passed through December-February undetected. Guessing the lack of increase in the death rates puts paid to that as a suggestion.
Is it possible that the virus was around earlier than previously thought but in a milder or less serious form? Could it have then mutated to make it more deadly? Hence the first wave passed through relatively un-noticed, people getting unwell but not dying from it, but then a mutation of the virus caused the massive increase in deaths that we have seen since March.
 

IainP

Tour Rookie
Joined
Oct 26, 2011
Messages
2,544
Location
Oxfordshire
Yesterday the tracker site reported over 200K cases in one day (worldwide).
Difficult to conclude how much of that is greater access to testing, or it's spreading more quickly.

The reported death rates haven't increased with the same pace, and remain lower than the late March/early April peaks. Optimistically might think that globally the treatment is better understood and more options available. Conversely as has been discussed previously, how accurate and consistent is the reporting, especially in some of the countries being impacted harder currently.
Tricky to make sense of it all.
 

Crazyface

Tour Winner
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
4,790
Location
Cheshire
Is it possible that the virus was around earlier than previously thought but in a milder or less serious form? Could it have then mutated to make it more deadly? Hence the first wave passed through relatively un-noticed, people getting unwell but not dying from it, but then a mutation of the virus caused the massive increase in deaths that we have seen since March.
The amount of people that had a mysterious bug in December was huge. No it wasn't flu. Yes it knocked you for six. Yes it hung around you for bluddy weeks. I would love to know if I'd had it.
 

williamalex1

Money List Winner
Joined
Apr 7, 2012
Messages
10,043
Location
uddingston
The amount of people that had a mysterious bug in December was huge. No it wasn't flu. Yes it knocked you for six. Yes it hung around you for bluddy weeks. I would love to know if I'd had it.
I was at the doctor a few times in January and February about my constant dry cough, she said it was Strep throat :unsure: or something like that.
But I'm still here 6 months on, so fingers crossed.
 

larmen

Head Pro
Joined
Nov 2, 2015
Messages
1,261
Maybe the math we really need is finding out how much a roll out of the antibody test will cost?


My GFs boss has just been tested and apparently he had it at some point.
His wife however has not. Same household.
 

larmen

Head Pro
Joined
Nov 2, 2015
Messages
1,261
I know a few couples like that, including me and my good lady. I’ve had it, she hasn’t.
I wonder if that is likely, or if one of yours (and others) test might not be accurate?
Did you have it and isolate? Or did you find out later?

On the one hand you can't shake hands after a round of golf, but then, you can live with another person without getting it.
This virus is as consistent as my long irons.
 

Billysboots

Challenge Tour Pro
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
832
I wonder if that is likely, or if one of yours (and others) test might not be accurate?
Did you have it and isolate? Or did you find out later?

On the one hand you can't shake hands after a round of golf, but then, you can live with another person without getting it.
This virus is as consistent as my long irons.
I had it and found out later via an antibody test. I did have some symptoms when I felt off colour, but not classic coronavirus symptoms.

My guess if you’re not coughing and spluttering everywhere and aren’t really displaying symptoms then it may not be that contagious, but I’m only guessing based on our own circumstances.

Either that, or I need to try harder at the more romantic elements of marriage!
 
Top