Anyone Else Been Selected?

Swinglowandslow

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You do need to possess a fair amount of brain cells to understand all this!
Very droll😉
But...
No you don't. It was quite succinctly and clearly explained to us by Ethan. Should stop all the speculation that appears here, some of which seems reasonable ( but wrong) and some a bit way out😀
 

Tashyboy

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The day I did the anti body test was the same day me lad had a Covid test. What was strange was that both tests said “ if you show positive, it may be negative, if it is negative, it may be positive “.
That aside, still think the testing is vital.
on a side note, a guy at our golf course was informed via the Covid 19 app that he had been in touch with someone who had been diagnosed with Covid and had to self isolate. I sent him a good luck message and he replied saying I am out of isolation tomorrow. I thought how’s that work out he was only informed 8 days ago at the very latest.
Last Monday, daughter told me her partner has had the same Covid app message and only has 8 days to isolate. Again I thought odd. When I picked up the kids from skool he showed me the app ( from a safe distance even though we had been talking the day before). It shows you when The day was you were in contact with said Covid carrier and counts the days down from there.
So Thursday I am at the golf course and nigh on everyone is moaning about the guy at our place who had the initial Covid warning. He is back playing golf. I told them re the app tells you how many days you have to isolate for and not one person knew.
 
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Ethan

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The day I did the anti body test was the same day me lad had a Covid test. What was strange was that both tests said “ if you show positive, it may be negative, if it is negative, it may be positive “.
That aside, still think the testing is vital.
on a side note, a guy at our golf course was informed via the Covid 19 app that he had been in touch with someone who had been diagnosed with Covid and had to self isolate. I sent him a good luck message and he replied saying I am out of isolation tomorrow. I thought how’s that work out he was only informed 8 days ago at the very latest.
Last Monday, daughter told me her partner has had the same Covid app message and only has 8 days to isolate. Again I thought odd. When I picked up the kids from skool he showed me the app ( from a safe distance even though we had been talking the day before). It shows you when The day was you were in contact with said Covid carrier and counts the days down from there.
So Thursday I am at the golf course and nigh on everyone is moaning about the guy at our place who had the initial Covid warning. He is back playing golf. I told them re the app tells you how many days you have to isolate for and not one person knew.
The isolation period dates from the point of contact with the case. So by the time someone notifies the Man that they are positive, supplies their contacts and those contacts are contacted (either by Serco or by the app), some of the 14 days will have passed. The virus doesn't know you have been notified late so you only need to isolate for the remainder.

The clumsy and rather unhelpful statement about positive being negative etc is presumably saying that there is false test possibility for either result. As stated, though, it doesn't really tel you anything you can usefully use. False negative is more ,likely than false positive, so if you came up negative but a couple of days later got a fever and started coughing, or lost your taste, I presume most people wield consider they might actually be positive.
 

Traminator

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Yes I've had 2 self-isolations, the first one I was in contact 9 days prior so had to do 5 days, the second was 8 days prior so had to do 6 days.
 

Ethan

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Yes I've had 2 self-isolations, the first one I was in contact 9 days prior so had to do 5 days, the second was 8 days prior so had to do 6 days.
There will be more. By Christmas, we will all have had a few unless we are living a monastic existence cut off from humanity. I remain appalled that testing of close contacts is not done. I fail to see how any measure of control can be achieved when we deliberately ignore asymptomatic transmission as a matter of policy.
 
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Traminator

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There will be more. By Christmas, we will all have had a few unless we are living monastic existence cut off from humanity. I remain appalled that testing of close contacts is not done. I fail to see how any measure of control can be achieved when we deliberately ignore asymptomatic transmission as a matter of policy.
I was tested within a couple of hours the first time, by the second time the rules had changed and we had 10 military key workers sitting around for a week with not a test between us. That I find surprising.
 

Tashyboy

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The isolation period dates from the point of contact with the case. So by the time someone notifies the Man that they are positive, supplies their contacts and those contacts are contacted (either by Serco or by the app), some of the 14 days will have passed. The virus doesn't know you have been notified late so you only need to isolate for the remainder.

The clumsy and rather unhelpful statement about positive being negative etc is presumably saying that there is false test possibility for either result. As stated, though, it doesn't really tel you anything you can usefully use. False negative is more ,likely than false positive, so if you came up negative but a couple of days later got a fever and started coughing, or lost your taste, I presume most people wield consider they might actually be positive.
Ethan do you have any idea how folk are chosen re the antibody test. Reason being I have no reason to believe that I have had it at it at some point.
However Missis Tash is a different kettle of fish. In Feb she had the worst cough imaginable with a shortness of breath. But the biggest thing being she lost all sense of smell or taste. When that eventually came out as being a symptom of Covid a got a weeks worth of I told you so.
 

Ethan

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Ethan do you have any idea how folk are chosen re the antibody test. Reason being I have no reason to believe that I have had it at it at some point.
However Missis Tash is a different kettle of fish. In Feb she had the worst cough imaginable with a shortness of breath. But the biggest thing being she lost all sense of smell or taste. When that eventually came out as being a symptom of Covid a got a weeks worth of I told you so.
Sorry, don't specifically know. A proper population prevalence study should study a random population so that findings can be generalised to the broader population. Sounds like Mrs Tash had the lurgy but at this stage, ABs could be negative.
 

NearHull

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Very droll😉
But...
No you don't. It was quite succinctly and clearly explained to us by Ethan. Should stop all the speculation that appears here, some of which seems reasonable ( but wrong) and some a bit way out😀
I meant it as a compliment to Ethan
 

sev112

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I was much the same in March just after lockdown, the Doc diagnosed [ by phone ] that I had Strep throat :confused: and prescribed a nasal spray.
I still have a throat chesty cough 6 months later.
Why aren't GPs seeing patients as many patients, it doesn't seem fair that A&E departments are having to bear the brunt of this. :mad:
I’ve had what is astonishingly similar to Long Covid symptoms for 2 and a half years. Doctors initially said it was a “post-viral response“ that just hung around for ages and ages following a 3 week dose of real flu (not man flu) and then a week of man flu.

I can easily believe there are similarities and linkages between things like Australian flu and things like Covid, even if it is just the symptoms and impacts.
 
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I was quite ill and totally out of sorts in January this year. I had a really annoying persistent cough too.
Similar, had the worst cough I've ever had back in January, coughed my lungs up for nearly 4 weeks. Don't know if it was the covid lurgy or not. Mrs Wedge is a nurse in the NHS, she had the antibody test last month, which came back negative, so possibly not, but equally, could be that her antibodies have diminished. Guess we won't really know, just have to hope that the vaccine trials work out, although the news seems to have gone very quiet on that of late.
 

Ethan

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Not so. Only yesterday it was being widely reported that scientists in this country are confident that more than one vaccine will be rolled out in the U.K. in the first 3-6 months of next year.
The pharma and medical communities are generally fairly confident that at least a few of the various vaccine candidates in development will succeed and be available from the new year. None of them will arrive soon enough to save Trump (at the ballot box), though.

Don't be surprised if you hear reports of further delays in the studies or of adverse events (side effects). That is par for the course and all trials have them, although they are not usually front page news.
 

Billysboots

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The pharma and medical communities are generally fairly confident that at least a few of the various vaccine candidates in development will succeed and be available from the new year. None of them will arrive soon enough to save Trump (at the ballot box), though.

Don't be surprised if you hear reports of further delays in the studies or of adverse events (side effects). That is par for the course and all trials have them, although they are not usually front page news.
Happy to wait. Just need some tangible hope to cling to.
 
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The pharma and medical communities are generally fairly confident that at least a few of the various vaccine candidates in development will succeed and be available from the new year. None of them will arrive soon enough to save Trump (at the ballot box), though.

Don't be surprised if you hear reports of further delays in the studies or of adverse events (side effects). That is par for the course and all trials have them, although they are not usually front page news.
For the main part, I haven't heard much on the vaccine front for a while, but I did read this last week, seems ridiculous, but .....

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...paign-oxford-university-chimpanzee-conspiracy
 

Ethan

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For the main part, I haven't heard much on the vaccine front for a while, but I did read this last week, seems ridiculous, but .....

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...paign-oxford-university-chimpanzee-conspiracy
The fact that even The Express knows it is nonsense speaks to just how stupid this piece of disinformation is, but as we have seen there are always some people willing to believe any rubbish. It is insidious, though, because even though sensible people will dismiss it, it can seed a vague sense of discomfort.

The Oxford vaccine is based on an adenovirus that causes a cold-like illness in chimps but has no effect on humans despite our genetic proximity. Lots of medicines, especially antibodies, are developed using proteins or bits of genetic information from one form of animal or another.
 
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Given that Ethan seems to know a lot about this, please you could comment on something that bothers me...

On the one hand we're being told that immunity after infection & recovery isn't a given.
On the other hand, everyone seems to be rushing to develop a vaccine.
If recovery from infection won't provide immunity, why will a vaccine?
If a vaccine is going to work, why won't herd immunity?

Will a vaccine need to be deployed much like the seasonal flu vaccine, being required every year?
And if so, presumably it will - like the flu jab - be targetted at the more vulnerable in society?
 

Ethan

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Given that Ethan seems to know a lot about this, please you could comment on something that bothers me...

On the one hand we're being told that immunity after infection & recovery isn't a given.
On the other hand, everyone seems to be rushing to develop a vaccine.
If recovery from infection won't provide immunity, why will a vaccine?
If a vaccine is going to work, why won't herd immunity?

Will a vaccine need to be deployed much like the seasonal flu vaccine, being required every year?
And if so, presumably it will - like the flu jab - be targetted at the more vulnerable in society?
I think that most scientists believe that exposure, through natural infection or vaccination, probably does confer immunity, but the infection has been around for a relatively short time and we haven't seen enough people for long enough to be certain. Don't get put off by the reports of a few people getting second infections. People are weird and their immunologies vary and odd stuff happens but not too often. If there was a major problem with reinfection, I think we would know by now.

Coronaviruses have been around for a while and there is decent understanding of their biology. Lab experiments have shown it is possible to neutralise the virus with the right antibodies, such as those produced by infection or vaccination, and there is also evidence that some people (kids and younger adults) may be able to ward off infection with their T-cells, despite never having previously seen Covid. That is probably because of exposure to other coronaviruses and cross-reactivity with them. Equally, T-cells may have a vital role after antibodies disappear and produce durable immunity. We don't really know yet although there is growing evidence.

That antibody evidence leads us to believe vaccination can work, so several different mechanisms are going. That increases the chance of more than one working. Phase II studies have shown that a number of these vaccines generate antibodies and those antibodies kill Covid. As far as I am concerned, that is pretty close to a finish line.

Herd immunity is a mathematical concept which basically identifies a percentage immune after which there aren't enough potential victims left for the infection to keep growing. That number depends on how infectious the contagion is (based on N=1/1-R), so highly infectious like measles (R= 12-15) means a lot more people need to be immune. Covid has a relatively low infectiousness (R = <3), so about 66% need to be immune. The problem is that the herd immunity stragey kills a lot of people, and if you smiled the elderly and vulnerable (which is pretty impossible) then a lot of middle aged people will die or have a staycation in hospital and possibly suffer long Covid. We don't know whether it is possible to get 66% penetration whilst still protecting the vulnerable, it may not be, and that sort of natural infection is very hard to control, so it is likely that the NHS will be overwhelmed and other patients get displaced. And, as i said above, we aren't certain how durable immunity lasts. If it lasts 9-12 months, then herd immunity becomes the Forth Bridge Strategy, by the time you have finished, you need to start all over again. Vaccination might be the same, we don't know. Past experience suggests that vaccine-induced immunity might be stronger on a population basis, because everyone gets a strong dose whereas infection can vary.

The main argument advanced for herd immunity is an economic one. Past experience of pandemics suggests that until you get the health issue sorted, the economic issues can't be sorted, so it is a false choice. The two go hand in hand. Sort the disease out robustly, the economy gets better sooner too.
 
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