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  1. #11
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    When you made your choice you had a 33% chance of being right.

  2. #12
    Ryder Cup Winner Region3's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    Before 1 door is eliminated there is a 33% chance you have picked the right door. How does removing one door improve your chances by 17%?

    Or thinking about it another way; Steadfastly refusing to swap doors gives the same end result as just opening your door as soon as you pick it without removing one of the booby prizes.

  3. #13
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise
    .
    You sure?

    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  4. #14
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Or this one is quicker

    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  5. #15
    Tour Winner MegaSteve's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Don't really care...
    I wouldn't have got through the yes/no part of the game..
    On an adventure 'til dementia...

  6. #16
    Tour Winner Papas1982's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    It's 50/50 either way surely.

    You had 33% at the start when choosing 1/3.

    You now have to boxes and have to choose 1. Keep or switch you're still picking 1/2 or 50%.

    Would like them to do the test 100 times to show of one really does have a significant edge.
    My own H4H. Challenge. Get to 16 or pop 20in the pot.

  7. #17
    Tour Winner Kellfire's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    It has been proven many times - you're on the internet, the proof is easily accessible!

    http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/montyhall2.htm

    You should switch.

  8. #18
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Papas1982 View Post
    It's 50/50 either way surely.

    You had 33% at the start when choosing 1/3.

    You now have to boxes and have to choose 1. Keep or switch you're still picking 1/2 or 50%.

    Would like them to do the test 100 times to show of one really does have a significant edge.
    They did it about 20 odd times here. If you did more then there would be no difference from a theoretical statistical viewpoint.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24045598
    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  9. #19
    Tour Winner Papas1982's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    [QUOTE=Hacker Khan;1741114]They did it about 20 odd times here. If you did more then there would be no difference from a theoretical statistical viewpoint.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24045598[/QUOTE

    Consider me converted!

    Makes sense now.

    Still wouldn't have switched if on show lol

    Would do now.
    My own H4H. Challenge. Get to 16 or pop 20in the pot.

  10. #20
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Maybe I am missing something but he says that one of the doors has a booby prize behind it - it doesn't mean that both don't

    So both the other two doors you haven't chosen could have a booby prize

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