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  1. #11
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    When you made your choice you had a 33% chance of being right.

  2. #12
    Ryder Cup Winner Region3's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    Before 1 door is eliminated there is a 33% chance you have picked the right door. How does removing one door improve your chances by 17%?

    Or thinking about it another way; Steadfastly refusing to swap doors gives the same end result as just opening your door as soon as you pick it without removing one of the booby prizes.

  3. #13
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise
    .
    You sure?

    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  4. #14
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Or this one is quicker

    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  5. #15
    Tour Winner MegaSteve's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Don't really care...
    I wouldn't have got through the yes/no part of the game..
    On an adventure 'til dementia...

  6. #16
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    It's 50/50 either way surely.

    You had 33% at the start when choosing 1/3.

    You now have to boxes and have to choose 1. Keep or switch you're still picking 1/2 or 50%.

    Would like them to do the test 100 times to show of one really does have a significant edge.
    Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0

  7. #17
    Tour Winner Kellfire's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    It has been proven many times - you're on the internet, the proof is easily accessible!

    http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/montyhall2.htm

    You should switch.

  8. #18
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Papas1982 View Post
    It's 50/50 either way surely.

    You had 33% at the start when choosing 1/3.

    You now have to boxes and have to choose 1. Keep or switch you're still picking 1/2 or 50%.

    Would like them to do the test 100 times to show of one really does have a significant edge.
    They did it about 20 odd times here. If you did more then there would be no difference from a theoretical statistical viewpoint.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24045598
    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  9. #19
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    [QUOTE=Hacker Khan;1741114]They did it about 20 odd times here. If you did more then there would be no difference from a theoretical statistical viewpoint.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24045598[/QUOTE

    Consider me converted!

    Makes sense now.

    Still wouldn't have switched if on show lol

    Would do now.
    Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0

  10. #20
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Maybe I am missing something but he says that one of the doors has a booby prize behind it - it doesn't mean that both don't

    So both the other two doors you haven't chosen could have a booby prize

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