Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 60
  1. #21
    Tour Winner Kellfire's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    York
    Posts
    3,626

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    You're over thinking it. You just aren't getting the maths.

  2. #22
    Challenge Tour Pro TheDiablo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    712

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    Get it yet? 😂😂😂

    Muppet.

  3. #23
    Money List Winner
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    7,721

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    Maybe I am missing something but he says that one of the doors has a booby prize behind it - it doesn't mean that both don't

    So both the other two doors you haven't chosen could have a booby prize
    2 doors have a booby prize, one door has the car. After your first guess you get shown one of the other doors you have not chosen has a booby prize. That is when your odds are no longer 1 in 3.
    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  4. #24
    Journeyman Pro
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Location
    Yeovil
    Posts
    1,900

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    This is about knowing the difference between odds and probability.

    Tossing a coin will always have the same odds of it being either heads or tails but the more you toss the coin with the same result the greater the probability that the next toss will produce a different one. Probability is a statistical concept, odds are a mathematical concept.

  5. #25
    Journeyman Pro Jimaroid's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Fife
    Posts
    1,676

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    In the last 20 years I have seen this puzzle posted to numerous usenet newsgroups, bulletin boards, forums, social media groups, mailing lists and even discussed openly in pubs and clubs . It has never resulted in anything except a massive argument.

    My prediction, 100% probability of the same thing happening again here.
    I like putting. (2018 handicap: 10.0 ... 10.1)

  6. #26
    Head Pro
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    400

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Hacker Khan View Post
    2 doors have a booby prize, one door has the car. After your first guess you get shown one of the other doors you have not chosen has a booby prize. That is when your odds are no longer 1 in 3.
    Why do your odds change as you still don't know which one of the other two doors has the booby prize behind it

  7. #27
    Money List Winner Papas1982's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,000

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    Why do your odds change as you still don't know which one of the other two doors has the booby prize behind it
    Having looked at a link earlier. The easiest way I can explain it is:

    from the start you have 1/3 of picking it at the start. Meaning 2/3 of not.

    He then removes a bogus box. Meaning that the left box has a 2/3 chance of being the right one.

    so you stick with your box 1/3 or go with the switch 2/3.
    My own H4H. Challenge. Get to 16 or pop £20in the pot.

  8. #28
    Head Pro
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    400

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Papas1982 View Post
    Having looked at a link earlier. The easiest way I can explain it is:

    from the start you have 1/3 of picking it at the start. Meaning 2/3 of not.

    He then removes a bogus box. Meaning that the left box has a 2/3 chance of being the right one.

    so you stick with your box 1/3 or go with the switch 2/3.
    He doesnt remove anything .... he just says that behind one of the doors is a booby prize .... it also does not mean that there isnt a booby prize behind the other one either!!!!
    Driver Ping G LS Tec 9 Degree 65g S Shaft3 Wood Callaway GBB Epic Hzrdus T800 65g S Shaft5 Wood Callaway GBB Epic Hzrdus T800 65g S ShaftHybrid Callaway 4H 22 Degree XR Project X 5.5 R ShaftIrons 4-PW Callaway Steelhead Pro KBS C Taper Lite S ShaftWedges Callaway MD3 50, 54, 58 Deg KBS Tour V S ShaftPutter Tad Moore Handmade TMS Tour 34" Blade

  9. #29
    Money List Winner Papas1982's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,000

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    He doesnt remove anything .... he just says that behind one of the doors is a booby prize .... it also does not mean that there isnt a booby prize behind the other one either!!!!
    He is given 3 choices at the start. So has 1 in 3 it'll be in his box. (A)

    Therefore its 2/3 it'll be in one of the two he doesn't pick. (B)

    The full description then then states that he removes a box, one that doesn't have the prize in. The contestant can Then swap.

    If you accept that (a) is true, then option (b) remains 2/3 irrespective of there now being one box instead of two.
    My own H4H. Challenge. Get to 16 or pop £20in the pot.

  10. #30
    Tour Winner Maninblack4612's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    South Shields
    Posts
    3,339

    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDiablo View Post
    Get it yet? 

    Muppet.
    It's reassuring to know that a professor of mathematics got it as wrong as me. The way I explain it to myself is that, at the outset, I'm twice as likely to have chosen the wrong door. When one wrong door is opened this is still the case so, by switching, I double my chances of choosing the right one. Defies logic!
    Taylormade M1 9½°, Matrix Black Tie 6M3 Regular
    Taylormade SLDR 3 woodf
    Taylormade SLDR 5 wood
    TaylormadeSLDR Rescue 22°
    Mizuno JPX850 forged irons 4 - PW
    Titelist Vokey 50 & 58 wedges
    Cure RX4 putter (heavyweight magic wand)
    Motocaddy S7 Remote
    Vice Pro Plus ball
    H/C 10 @ SSGC.co.uk (9.5, whole season to get back to single figures)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Latest Golf News

Adrian Otaegui beats Benjamin Hebert to win Belgian Knockout

Adrian Otaegui of Spain defeated Benjamin Hebert of France in the final of the inaugural Belgian Knockout at Rinkven International GC in Antwerp. Scotsman David Drysdale beat James Heath of England to third place.

May 20, 2018

Sunday Trading: Nike Golf Deals And Other Apparel Savings

Check out some great savings on Nike apparel in this week's Sunday Trading

May 20, 2018

Vertical Groove Fairway Wood Revealed

Vertical Groove Fairway Wood Revealed - Vertical Groove Golf has added two new fairway woods to its unique metalwood offering for 2018

May 17, 2018

When Is Tiger Woods Next Playing?

The 14-time major champion has looked close to his best so far in 2018. But when is Tiger Woods next playing?

May 17, 2018

Miguel Angel Jimenez Q&A: On His Career, Love For Golf, Tiger Woods And More!

Miguel Angel Jimenez is currently competing in his 36th consecutive year as a professional. Does he still love golf? You bet!

May 16, 2018