You're over thinking it. You just aren't getting the maths.
You're over thinking it. You just aren't getting the maths.
Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.
This is about knowing the difference between odds and probability.
Tossing a coin will always have the same odds of it being either heads or tails but the more you toss the coin with the same result the greater the probability that the next toss will produce a different one. Probability is a statistical concept, odds are a mathematical concept.
In the last 20 years I have seen this puzzle posted to numerous usenet newsgroups, bulletin boards, forums, social media groups, mailing lists and even discussed openly in pubs and clubs . It has never resulted in anything except a massive argument.
My prediction, 100% probability of the same thing happening again here.
Some clubs. (2017 handicap: 11.2, 11.4, 10.2)
Having looked at a link earlier. The easiest way I can explain it is:
from the start you have 1/3 of picking it at the start. Meaning 2/3 of not.
He then removes a bogus box. Meaning that the left box has a 2/3 chance of being the right one.
so you stick with your box 1/3 or go with the switch 2/3.
Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0
Driver Ping G LS Tec 9 Degree 65g S Shaft3 Wood Callaway GBB Epic Hzrdus T800 65g S Shaft5 Wood Callaway GBB Epic Hzrdus T800 65g S ShaftHybrid Callaway 4H 22 Degree XR Project X 5.5 R ShaftIrons 4-PW Callaway Steelhead Pro KBS C Taper Lite S ShaftWedges Callaway MD3 50, 54, 58 Deg KBS Tour V S ShaftPutter Tad Moore Handmade TMS Tour 34" Blade
He is given 3 choices at the start. So has 1 in 3 it'll be in his box. (A)
Therefore its 2/3 it'll be in one of the two he doesn't pick. (B)
The full description then then states that he removes a box, one that doesn't have the prize in. The contestant can Then swap.
If you accept that (a) is true, then option (b) remains 2/3 irrespective of there now being one box instead of two.
Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0
It's reassuring to know that a professor of mathematics got it as wrong as me. The way I explain it to myself is that, at the outset, I'm twice as likely to have chosen the wrong door. When one wrong door is opened this is still the case so, by switching, I double my chances of choosing the right one. Defies logic!
Taylormade M1 9½°, Matrix Black Tie 6M3 Regular
Taylormade SLDR 3 wood
Taylormade SLDR 5 wood
TaylormadeSLDR Rescue 22°
Mizuno JPX850 forged irons 4 - PW
Titelist Vokey 50 & 58 wedges
Cure RX4 putter (heavyweight magic wand)
Vice Pro Plus ball
H/C 9 @ ssgc.co.uk
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