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  1. #21
    Tour Winner Kellfire's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    You're over thinking it. You just aren't getting the maths.

  2. #22
    Challenge Tour Pro TheDiablo's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Maninblack4612 View Post
    Seriously!?

    There's a 50% chance you have made the right choice. Makes no difference if you swop, you still have a 50:50 chance of being right.

    That is so obvious I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    Get it yet? 😂😂😂

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  3. #23
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    Maybe I am missing something but he says that one of the doors has a booby prize behind it - it doesn't mean that both don't

    So both the other two doors you haven't chosen could have a booby prize
    2 doors have a booby prize, one door has the car. After your first guess you get shown one of the other doors you have not chosen has a booby prize. That is when your odds are no longer 1 in 3.
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  4. #24
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    This is about knowing the difference between odds and probability.

    Tossing a coin will always have the same odds of it being either heads or tails but the more you toss the coin with the same result the greater the probability that the next toss will produce a different one. Probability is a statistical concept, odds are a mathematical concept.

  5. #25
    Journeyman Pro Jimaroid's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    In the last 20 years I have seen this puzzle posted to numerous usenet newsgroups, bulletin boards, forums, social media groups, mailing lists and even discussed openly in pubs and clubs . It has never resulted in anything except a massive argument.

    My prediction, 100% probability of the same thing happening again here.
    Some clubs. (2017 handicap: 11.2, 11.4, 10.2)

  6. #26
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Hacker Khan View Post
    2 doors have a booby prize, one door has the car. After your first guess you get shown one of the other doors you have not chosen has a booby prize. That is when your odds are no longer 1 in 3.
    Why do your odds change as you still don't know which one of the other two doors has the booby prize behind it

  7. #27
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    Why do your odds change as you still don't know which one of the other two doors has the booby prize behind it
    Having looked at a link earlier. The easiest way I can explain it is:

    from the start you have 1/3 of picking it at the start. Meaning 2/3 of not.

    He then removes a bogus box. Meaning that the left box has a 2/3 chance of being the right one.

    so you stick with your box 1/3 or go with the switch 2/3.
    Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0

  8. #28
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by Papas1982 View Post
    Having looked at a link earlier. The easiest way I can explain it is:

    from the start you have 1/3 of picking it at the start. Meaning 2/3 of not.

    He then removes a bogus box. Meaning that the left box has a 2/3 chance of being the right one.

    so you stick with your box 1/3 or go with the switch 2/3.
    He doesnt remove anything .... he just says that behind one of the doors is a booby prize .... it also does not mean that there isnt a booby prize behind the other one either!!!!
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  9. #29
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by gmhubble View Post
    He doesnt remove anything .... he just says that behind one of the doors is a booby prize .... it also does not mean that there isnt a booby prize behind the other one either!!!!
    He is given 3 choices at the start. So has 1 in 3 it'll be in his box. (A)

    Therefore its 2/3 it'll be in one of the two he doesn't pick. (B)

    The full description then then states that he removes a box, one that doesn't have the prize in. The contestant can Then swap.

    If you accept that (a) is true, then option (b) remains 2/3 irrespective of there now being one box instead of two.
    Handicap Challenge: Papas1982 18.1 Vs Fish 18.0

  10. #30
    Tour Winner Maninblack4612's Avatar
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    Re: Maths / Probability Puzzle

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDiablo View Post
    Get it yet? 

    Muppet.
    It's reassuring to know that a professor of mathematics got it as wrong as me. The way I explain it to myself is that, at the outset, I'm twice as likely to have chosen the wrong door. When one wrong door is opened this is still the case so, by switching, I double my chances of choosing the right one. Defies logic!
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