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Thread: Article 50

  1. #7381
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by maxfli65 View Post
    Just a silly stand off, you could argue that one from both sides points of view. Schedule was agreed in advance so EU say UK have been slow then avoided main issues and not kept up, UK say EU are being unreasonable by not offering more meets and flexibility on trade discussion etc etc.

    any kind of agreement is not looking great at the mo.
    I do fear a No Deal is coming - and when it subsequently looks not too great (at least in the short-med term) the politicians taking us out can just tell us 'well you voted for it' - and the majority of us did.
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

    And with just the October medal to go - I've got to 8.3

    Job done

  2. #7382
    Ryder Cup Winner Hobbit's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by SwingsitlikeHogan View Post
    I do fear a No Deal is coming - and when it subsequently looks not too great (at least in the short-med term) the politicians taking us out can just tell us 'well you voted for it' - and the majority of us did.
    Unless the EU learn to compromise too I feel a "no deal" is essential.

    The sticking points at present appear to be the size of the divorce bill, which is just crazy high. The legal commitment is to 2020. That's another 3 years of £15bn = £45bn. And that is all the legal commitment is courtesy of the EU never structuring properly for a country that leaves. In reality, There are infrastructure projects and ongoing costs, like pensions, that should be honoured. The EU started those projects, in good faith, based on budgets they could plan. It isn't their fault that one of the contributors is pulling out. BUT the legal requirement is £45bn - end of.

    The UK could, quite legally, say stuff you, you're getting £45bn and that's it. But there's no winners in that. The EU would no doubt make trade exceptionally difficult. But we've all heard that the UK is a net importer and it would hurt the EU more than us. That's a little disingenuous and naïve. The UK has lots of net importers, and no one EU country would feel the full brunt of a trade embargo, whereas the UK would feel the full force. It would hurt the UK far more. The EU knows we need that trade deal more than they do. Alternatively, we could become the Poundshop on the world trade stage. Poundshops survive but don't exactly blow the FTSE apart.

    The Irish border question; a political nightmare but also a trade nightmare too if it becomes an open border without a free trade agreement in place. The obvious political answer is to continue the "as is" movement between NI and the Republic, but how do you reconcile trade and where do you set up border controls with the mainland UK? At the outgoing ports and airports in Northern Ireland? That is already being howled at by some sections of the NI population.

    EU citizens rights in the UK, and a reciprocal agreement for expats in the EU. That's reasonable, but the EU wants those rights extended to EU citizens families still in their home countries, and for the ECJ to be the arbitrator in any dispute. Personally, no that's not on.

    So who isn't budging? Both parties. The divorce bill is just a negotiation, and I expect it will be resolved. The Irish question needs to include X-border trade, which the EU won't discuss till the divorce bill is settled but the UK won't move on from parallel talks. As for citizen's rights; the ECJ having judicial powers within the UK, post-Brexit?! You're having a laugh.

    Personally, until both sides negotiate, not just posture, this isn't going to move on.
    Give it big humpties

  3. #7383
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by Hobbit View Post
    Unless the EU learn to compromise too I feel a "no deal" is essential.

    The sticking points at present appear to be the size of the divorce bill, which is just crazy high. The legal commitment is to 2020. That's another 3 years of £15bn = £45bn. And that is all the legal commitment is courtesy of the EU never structuring properly for a country that leaves. In reality, There are infrastructure projects and ongoing costs, like pensions, that should be honoured. The EU started those projects, in good faith, based on budgets they could plan. It isn't their fault that one of the contributors is pulling out. BUT the legal requirement is £45bn - end of.

    The UK could, quite legally, say stuff you, you're getting £45bn and that's it. But there's no winners in that. The EU would no doubt make trade exceptionally difficult. But we've all heard that the UK is a net importer and it would hurt the EU more than us. That's a little disingenuous and naïve. The UK has lots of net importers, and no one EU country would feel the full brunt of a trade embargo, whereas the UK would feel the full force. It would hurt the UK far more. The EU knows we need that trade deal more than they do. Alternatively, we could become the Poundshop on the world trade stage. Poundshops survive but don't exactly blow the FTSE apart.

    The Irish border question; a political nightmare but also a trade nightmare too if it becomes an open border without a free trade agreement in place. The obvious political answer is to continue the "as is" movement between NI and the Republic, but how do you reconcile trade and where do you set up border controls with the mainland UK? At the outgoing ports and airports in Northern Ireland? That is already being howled at by some sections of the NI population.

    EU citizens rights in the UK, and a reciprocal agreement for expats in the EU. That's reasonable, but the EU wants those rights extended to EU citizens families still in their home countries, and for the ECJ to be the arbitrator in any dispute. Personally, no that's not on.

    So who isn't budging? Both parties. The divorce bill is just a negotiation, and I expect it will be resolved. The Irish question needs to include X-border trade, which the EU won't discuss till the divorce bill is settled but the UK won't move on from parallel talks. As for citizen's rights; the ECJ having judicial powers within the UK, post-Brexit?! You're having a laugh.

    Personally, until both sides negotiate, not just posture, this isn't going to move on.
    Good reasoned post.

    The £45bn coves 3 yrs - I am guessing (guessing because neither the EU nor the UK have shown us the EU's basis for calculating the settlement) that another £5bn could well be the longer term commitment that all members make to funding pensions.

    And you are right in pointing out the import/export balance of trade. We often hear how the EU depends on the UK more than the UK on the EU - but, as you say, when you split up the EU side across the 27 states - each individually could probably cope with their share of the impact on the EU much better than than the UK which has to carry all of the impact on the UK (obviously)

    I believe that there is no answer to the the NI/EU border issue. There will be all hell to pay from the Unionists and many in the UK if the answer is UK Border Agency at UK mainland ports and airports serving links to NI. Never mind all of the ports and harbours all around the country where people and goods could be landed or brought in from Eire/NI.

    Your thoughts re EU27 families of EU27 residents in the UK seem reasonable. But it is a rather harsh and mean-spirited approach - and is it necessary given the rest of the problems we'll have to deal with). Perhaps limit to immediate family only can come to UK. And if we do not want any role for the ECJ in protecting EU27 residents rights in the UK then EU might well require that something has to be built into the agreement that means that all current rights are protected (yes that could cause issues if British/nonEU27 residents rights are reduced or removed by UK government - but maybe the divergence and chaos that that would cause would be a good mitigation against the UK government doing that).

    Impasse. Until after the Tory Party Conference at least
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

    And with just the October medal to go - I've got to 8.3

    Job done

  4. #7384
    Journeyman Pro maxfli65's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Not a total impasse domestically - Labour reportedly going to vote against the Brexit bill en masse this week, want power to remain with parliament on this rather than Govt, be interested to see if any Tories rebel, if so could be very close and therefore embarrassing/difficult for May (first vote since GE that will highlight what her calling of the snap GE really means).
    Last edited by maxfli65; 05-Sep-2017 at 20:29.

  5. #7385
    Tour Rookie IanM's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Brexit ain't happening. Been saying it for about year, see no reason to change my my view.

    Political elite were never going to allow it. Referendum only happened as they thought they'd win. The negotiations are not being conducted as such, it's all a sham.

    Time to squirrel away your pension pots chaps, Corbyn needs to pay for all the free stuff he's promising...
    A bit Old School, Taylor Made Woods & Ping Irons! Jetspeeds and i25s
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  6. #7386
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by IanM View Post
    Brexit ain't happening. Been saying it for about year, see no reason to change my my view.

    Political elite were never going to allow it. Referendum only happened as they thought they'd win. The negotiations are not being conducted as such, it's all a sham.

    Time to squirrel away your pension pots chaps, Corbyn needs to pay for all the free stuff he's promising...
    Don't worry, the money we will save from not having to pay billions in the divorce settlement and the money wasted on years of legally untangling our self from the EU to essentially get ULK PLC into a slightly worse trading position that we have now can be put into the NHS each week.
    Tinkety tonk old fruit, and down with the Nazis.

  7. #7387
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by IanM View Post
    Brexit ain't happening. Been saying it for about year, see no reason to change my my view.

    Political elite were never going to allow it. Referendum only happened as they thought they'd win. The negotiations are not being conducted as such, it's all a sham.

    Time to squirrel away your pension pots chaps, Corbyn needs to pay for all the free stuff he's promising...
    Whether the political elite want it or not - it seems ever more likely that the sub-elite in the government will be unable to deliver anything except No Deal
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

    And with just the October medal to go - I've got to 8.3

    Job done

  8. #7388
    Tour Rookie IanM's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Correct. ....... the eu don't negotiate or recognise the sovereignty of member states....

    Will no deal meansales of German and French cars are blocked to the UK ? Thatll change things somewhat. Assuming Corbyns scum aren't in Downing Street by then.

    Eu Courts ordering states about refugee quotas today. Can't wait to see how that pans out.

    Still no sign of an audited itemized contract

  9. #7389
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by IanM View Post
    Correct. ....... the eu don't negotiate or recognise the sovereignty of member states....

    Will no deal meansales of German and French cars are blocked to the UK ? Thatll change things somewhat. Assuming Corbyns scum aren't in Downing Street by then.

    Eu Courts ordering states about refugee quotas today. Can't wait to see how that pans out.

    Still no sign of an audited itemized contract
    Bottom line question is whether the legal basis of any settlement amount the EU asks for or any audited itemised contract make any difference. If the EU decide they don't like the settlement amount the UK eventually offers - whatever that is - the EU can just say no. And we are no further forward.
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

    And with just the October medal to go - I've got to 8.3

    Job done

  10. #7390
    Ryder Cup Winner Hobbit's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by SwingsitlikeHogan View Post
    Bottom line question is whether the legal basis of any settlement amount the EU asks for or any audited itemised contract make any difference. If the EU decide they don't like the settlement amount the UK eventually offers - whatever that is - the EU can just say no. And we are no further forward.
    I know its only semantics but there needs to be an understanding of what EU law for exiting countries says and what is about negotiating access.

    1) The UK only has to pay its usual contributions up to the exit date. That is a fact in law, or it was until June 2016 to July '17.
    2) The EU believes that the UK is liable for its share of ongoing projects and pensions. That (foolishly) isn't supported by EU regs and laws, or it wasn't until June 2016 to July '17.

    Worryingly, the EU has passed 3 specific financial laws since June 2016 that quite cynically look like a money grab, closing the loop holes that were there prior to the Brexit vote. This is forming the basis of the EU's argument for more money, the ongoing payments. Behind the scenes the UK are arguing that bringing in those laws, post Brexit vote, are unlawful. Needless to say the ECJ will side with the EU in this, whereas the UK courts have already ruled on it.

    I would expect, and even put money on, the UK paying a settlement fee to buy access to trade. And this is the current sticking point. The EU are saying pay the settlement fee AND it isn't linked to access. The EU, on receipt of the settlement fee, will then ask for more money for access to trade. And further to that there is the Freedom of Movement they are still insisting on, along with the ECJ have judicial powers within the UK.
    Give it big humpties

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