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Thread: Article 50

  1. #6061
    Ryder Cup Winner Hobbit's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    [QUOTE=SwingsitlikeHogan;1694794][QUOTE=Hobbit;1694790]
    Quote Originally Posted by SwingsitlikeHogan View Post
    Barnier in the last week or so thought the bill would be no more than €40bn (consistent with the £30bn)


    I've only just quoted what I have read and understood from various sources. I don't come up with estimates of my own. In quoting what Barnier has said I am providing evidence supportive of ColchesterFCs figure of £30bn. And coming from Barnier I would tend to have more belief in that figure than ones calculated by 3rd parties making their own assumptions.
    Maybe you miss my point, but you absolutely defended the FT number of €100bn because they used the same criteria the EU used. If you look back you will see exactly what you posted. You believed the number of €100bn, and defended it. Are you defending it now or are you saying that you were wrong?
    Give it big humpties

  2. #6062
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    Re: Article 50

    I still think that it will be impossible for May to get a deal within the timescale. [18 months]
    That means either no deal or about 5 years of protracted talks.

    Most pundits seem to think no deal will be a disaster for the UK.

  3. #6063
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    [QUOTE=Hobbit;1694796][QUOTE=SwingsitlikeHogan;1694794]
    Quote Originally Posted by Hobbit View Post

    Maybe you miss my point, but you absolutely defended the FT number of €100bn because they used the same criteria the EU used. If you look back you will see exactly what you posted. You believed the number of €100bn, and defended it. Are you defending it now or are you saying that you were wrong?
    I defended it because it was based upon revised criteria set out by the EU and validated by another source. The accusation was that it was yet another figure conjured up by the EU, it wasn't. The €40bn figure seems to have come direct from the mouth of Barnier and in stating it he also rejected the €100bn figure (source The Times 17th May)
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

  4. #6064
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by Doon frae Troon View Post
    I still think that it will be impossible for May to get a deal within the timescale. [18 months]
    That means either no deal or about 5 years of protracted talks.

    Most pundits seem to think no deal will be a disaster for the UK.
    A Deal must be agreed by September 2018 and the EU27 will need 6months to review and then ratify the Deal. So not even 18months. It would be good to know what the pundits feel No Deal will mean and why they think it would be a disaster. The government needs to define and cost No Deal asap to squash pundits nervousness and negativity about No Deal

    The government can make a 3-point estimate for the value of a No Deal relationship with the EU, using Best Possible / Most Likely / Worst Case scenarios.

    Then estimate what No Deal will mean in respect of trade with the RoW outside of the EU. Lead Brexiteers must have some idea of what that will be as we are continually told how outside of the EU we will be able to strike great deals with the RoW - so what will they be worth?

    No Deal - what does it mean for us - because the clock is ticking.
    Last edited by SwingsitlikeHogan; 19-May-2017 at 10:49.
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

  5. #6065
    Ryder Cup Winner Hobbit's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    I'd very much like to see what No Deal means.

    If its that the UK will operate under WTO rules, there isn't a single set of rules applied to any given country operating under them. WTO for the UK sees the UK having a "preferred status." But I'd hazard a guess that that status reflects the trading rules applied to all EU countries.

    A question from me would be what happens to our "preferred status" if we are not in the EU? Fine, May has said that in the first instance we will adopt all EU laws but following of the Great Repeal Bill we may drop some of the EU laws.
    Give it big humpties

  6. #6066
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by Hobbit View Post
    I'd very much like to see what No Deal means.

    If its that the UK will operate under WTO rules, there isn't a single set of rules applied to any given country operating under them. WTO for the UK sees the UK having a "preferred status." But I'd hazard a guess that that status reflects the trading rules applied to all EU countries.

    A question from me would be what happens to our "preferred status" if we are not in the EU? Fine, May has said that in the first instance we will adopt all EU laws but following of the Great Repeal Bill we may drop some of the EU laws.
    ...and as May said yesterday in her manifesto launch speech

    "If we fail, the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire. If we succeed, the opportunities ahead of us are great"

    If we fail? Dire? This is indeed honesty. So what is failure? It seems that we can either have a Deal or No Deal. And No Deal is simply the fallback contingency for a bad Deal

    What else can failure be then - if not No Deal?

    I must be missing something (more than the obvious jibes please ) - help me.
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

  7. #6067
    Ryder Cup Winner Hobbit's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by SwingsitlikeHogan View Post
    ...and as May said yesterday in her manifesto launch speech

    "If we fail, the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire. If we succeed, the opportunities ahead of us are great"

    If we fail? Dire? This is indeed honesty. So what is failure? It seems that we can either have a Deal or No Deal. And No Deal is simply the fallback contingency for a bad Deal

    What else can failure be then - if not No Deal?

    I must be missing something (more than the obvious jibes please ) - help me.
    Very good point. The No Deal option is the choice rather than get a Bad Deal off the EU.

    As for helping you; I'm not even sure the Good Samaritan could do that...
    Give it big humpties

  8. #6068
    Major Champion SwingsitlikeHogan's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by Hobbit View Post
    Very good point. The No Deal option is the choice rather than get a Bad Deal off the EU.

    As for helping you; I'm not even sure the Good Samaritan could do that...
    ...and logically then No Deal must be failure and therefore dire? And not may be dire - will be dire.
    to infinity and beyond...

    ...well from 10.0 to 9.4 this year would be nice.

  9. #6069
    Tour Winner Old Skier's Avatar
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    Re: Article 50

    Quote Originally Posted by SwingsitlikeHogan View Post
    ...and logically then No Deal must be failure and therefore dire? And not may be dire - will be dire.
    Possibly, for the EU, possibly for the UK. Nobody knows so it's back to guessing again.

    I think we may have been here before.

  10. #6070
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    Re: Article 50

    Nobody in their right mind will place details of their analysis in the public domain whilst actively negotiating. So while you might want to see the 'No Deal ' to inspect I'd hope the UK has more sense

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